African cities forecast to see some of the fastest population growth rates globally through to 2035

Africa is on the cusp of a demographic revolution, with its urban population projected to reach nearly one billion by 2035, up from about 650 million in recent years26. This rapid urbanization is not only transforming the continent’s economic landscape but also presenting both opportunities and challenges for its cities. African cities are forecast to experience some of the fastest population growth rates globally, driven by natural population increase and rural-urban migration8. This article explores the dynamics of urban growth in Africa, highlighting the cities expected to lead this trend, the economic implications, and the challenges that come with such rapid expansion.

Drivers of Urbanization in Africa

Urbanization in Africa is primarily driven by two factors: natural population increase and rural-urban migration. The natural increase in urban populations is attributed to improved healthcare services, which have led to higher life expectancy and lower mortality rates8. High fertility rates, averaging about five children per woman, further contribute to this population boom8. Rural-urban migration, while significant, accounts for a smaller portion of urban growth, driven by push factors such as poverty, conflict, and lack of opportunities in rural areas, and pull factors like better job prospects and access to services in cities58.

Cities Leading the Growth

By 2035, six African cities are expected to have populations exceeding 10 million: Cairo, Kinshasa, Lagos, Greater Johannesburg, Luanda, and Dar es Salaam23. These megacities will be hubs for economic activity, innovation, and cultural exchange. However, they will also face significant challenges, including overcrowding, informal settlements, and strained public services36.

Middleweight Cities: Cities like Kinshasa, Luanda, Nairobi, Yaoundé, Douala, Kano, Abuja, Dakar, and Kumasi are projected to experience faster economic growth, with Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGRs) of 6-8% from 2023 to 203517. These cities are crucial for regional economic development and will play a significant role in Africa’s urbanization story.

Rapidly Growing Cities: Addis Ababa, Dar es Salaam, Abidjan, and Kampala are expected to see even higher growth rates, approaching or exceeding double-digit CAGRs12. These cities are poised to become major economic centers, leveraging their strategic locations and growing populations to drive innovation and entrepreneurship.

Economic Implications

The rapid urbanization of Africa presents significant economic opportunities. By 2035, Africa’s top 100 cities are expected to house 21% of the continent’s population and generate over 60% of its GDP7. These cities will become engines of economic growth, fostering dynamic consumer markets, sophisticated commercial hubs, and bases for industrial production6. The growth of urban centers will also increase demand for infrastructure, housing, and services, creating new investment opportunities.

However, these economic benefits come with challenges. High unemployment, poor public services, and informal settlements are common issues in rapidly growing cities6. Addressing these challenges will require strategic planning and investment in infrastructure, education, and job creation initiatives.

Challenges Facing African Cities

Despite the economic opportunities, African cities face numerous challenges:

• Overcrowding and Informal Settlements: The rapid influx of people into cities often leads to overcrowding and the proliferation of informal settlements, which lack basic amenities like clean water and sanitation6.
• High Unemployment: While cities offer better job prospects than rural areas, the sheer number of migrants can lead to high unemployment rates, exacerbating poverty and social instability5.
• Poor Public Services: The strain on public services such as healthcare, education, and transportation can lead to inefficiencies and shortages, impacting the quality of life for urban residents3.
• Climate Change: African cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts, including increased flooding, droughts, and heatwaves, which can further strain urban infrastructure7.

Opportunities for Sustainable Growth

To harness the potential of urbanization while mitigating its challenges, African cities must adopt sustainable growth strategies:

• Investment in Infrastructure: Developing robust infrastructure, including housing, transportation, and utilities, is crucial for supporting growing populations and fostering economic activity.
• Job Creation and Skills Development: Encouraging entrepreneurship and providing vocational training can help reduce unemployment and ensure that urban residents have the skills needed for emerging industries.
• Innovative Urban Planning: Implementing smart city technologies and innovative urban planning strategies can help manage growth more effectively, reducing the strain on resources and improving living conditions.
• Environmental Sustainability: Incorporating green technologies and sustainable practices into urban development can help cities adapt to climate change and reduce their environmental footprint.

Conclusion

African cities are on the brink of a transformative era, driven by rapid population growth and urbanization. While this presents significant economic opportunities, it also poses challenges that require careful planning and strategic investment. By addressing these challenges and leveraging the potential of urbanization, African cities can become hubs of innovation, entrepreneurship, and sustainable growth, driving the continent’s development into the future.

As Africa continues to urbanize at an unprecedented rate, the success of its cities will depend on their ability to balance growth with sustainability, ensuring that the benefits of urbanization are equitably distributed and that the challenges are effectively managed. With proactive policies and investments, African cities can emerge as vibrant, resilient, and prosperous centers of economic and cultural activity, shaping the continent’s future for generations to come.